Colorado State scientists forecast more active hurricane season

Colorado State scientists forecast more active hurricane season

There also is a 52 percent probability that a major hurricane will move into the Caribbean Sea during the 2018 season that begins June 1 and runs through November 30, said researchers at Colorado State's Tropical Meteorology Project.

The annual study, which started in 1984, produced a variety of interesting stats for the upcoming season, including the probability of major hurricanes making landfall.

Once again and for the tenth consecutive year, Artemis will be tracking the hurricane season as it develops, over on our dedicated 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season page and reporting on any impacts to reinsurance, ILS and catastrophe bond interests. Fugate also predicted that people are expecting a level of forecasting that just isn't there yet.

Phil Klotzbach presented his teams forecast for 2018 Atlantic hurricane activity at the National Tropical Weather Conference today.

Seven storms could become hurricanes this year and three major systems may reach Category 3 or stronger on the five-step, Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the forecast. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and the far North Atlantic are anomalously cool.

Many in the Caribbean and along the USA coasts are still cleaning up from the 2017 season, which was extremely active and deadly. Researchers believe there is a 39 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast, according to the forecast.

It may seem just too surreal to start thinking of the upcoming hurricane season, with the potential for April snow for Long Island still on the horizon, and as areas in the southeastern US and Caribbean still struggle to recover from the havoc unleashed from last year's parade of major storms.

More news: March winds bring April (snow) showers

The probability for a hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is put at 52%, above the 42% long-term average.

An above-average hurricane season this year would follow devastation wrecked by a series of 12 named storms in 2017. "If we knew exactly where it was going to hit it would be a lot easier, but it isn't", said Fugate said. "This year may not be quite as active, but still probably normal to slightly above normal", AccuWeather forecaster Dan Kottlowski said.

"As of now, I don't see anything in the immediate future that would cause sea surface temperatures to warm up dramatically".

Similar to previous year, sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal across most of the basin and normal to above normal over the main developmental region, where more than 85 percent of all tropical storms form, according to AccuWeather.

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria helped drive total losses to more than US$215 billion in 2017. This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the US coast to 55°W.

In a forecast closely watched by energy industry officials, Colorado State University hurricane researchers on Thursday predicted a slightly above-average 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting that there is a 63% chance that a major hurricane will hit the USA mainland this year, compared with an average 52% probability. "However, there is certainly still time for this to occur, which is one of the biggest challenges with issuing forecasts this early".

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