Record-breaking corn-for-grain production forecast increases again

Record-breaking corn-for-grain production forecast increases again

Ahead of Thursday's USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, a group of industry analysts predicted the agency would move USA corn yields to 172.4 bpa, up from its estimate of 171.8 bpa in October.

Wheat prices are showing small gains following the WASDE report, due in part to USA stocks that are projected 25 million bushels lower from increased exports. Harvested area was forecast at a record 89.5 million acres, unchanged from October and up 8 percent from 2016.

"Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with hard red winter accounting for the entire increase", the U.S.D.A. said. Durum carryover was raised 1 million bus to 28 million bus based on a like increase in supply. The USDA late Monday said the US corn crop was 70 percent harvested, in line with trade expectations but behind the five-year average of 83 percent. "Sharply higher production in the three I states helped increase the national yield more than expected".

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Kansas growers are also forecast to bring in a record 204 million bushels of soybeans, up 6 percent from previous year. Both of those predictions are unchanged from last month's forecast. That would put average US corn yields even higher than 2016's record-breaking effort of 174.6 bpa. The increase resulted from a 298-million-bu increase in forecast 2017 corn production, at 14,578 million bus, partially offset by a 75-million-bu increase in 2017-18 feed and residual use at 5,575 million bus, and a 75-million-bu increase in forecast exports at 1,925 million bus. China corn is cut 500,000 tons to 2.5 million.

Chicago corn futures were set on Friday for a second week of decline, with prices trading near a one-year low as a USA government forecast of record yields weighed on the market. Last month the USDA predicted average yields in Colorado would be 145.0 bushels per acre, but that figure was increased to 148.0 this month.

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